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NOVEMBER 27, 2023

MIXED MARKET

This morning, cryptocurrency market are exhibiting a mix of movements, with Bitcoin and Ether experiencing slight losses entering the final week of November. Although Bitcoin had increased above the $38,000 mark, it now sits at $37,238, reflecting a 1.24% loss. Nonetheless, despite this decline, let’s remember that Bitcoin started the month at $34,397, thus, November has been profitable for the sector, with Bitcoin’s value growing. Meanwhile, Ether also saw a 1.48% price drop, currently valued at $2,043. Furthermore, although most cryptocurrencies faced losses, select few recorded gains, with Axie Infinity (AXS) jumping 15.9% in the last 24 hours due to increased demand for the play-to-earn blockchain game in November. Moreover, dYdX in the decentralized finance (DeFi) space is set to unlock $500 million in tokens.

GOLD PRICES INCREASED

Gold prices have reached a more than six-month high, surpassing the $2,000 per ounce level. By 6.45 GMT, the spot gold price had increased by 0.5% to $2,012.33 per ounce, with U.S. gold futures also rising by the same percentage, reaching $2,013.10. This boost has been driven by the expectation of a pause in interest rate hikes as recent indicators, such ss job reports, have suggested a slowdown in U.S. inflation. Notably, the price of gold has surpassed its 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages, and is now approaching its all-time high of $2,072.49 reached in August 2020. Moreover, investors are closely monitoring for the revised U.S. third-quarter GDP figures and the PCE price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, and if these reports suggesta a potential lower interest rates, the costs associated with holding non-interest-bearing assets, thereby gold prices could continue increasing.

RECORD-BREAKING SHOPPING SPREE

According to Adobe Analytics, on Cyber Monday, bargain hunters flocked to their phones and laptops to snap up a wide range of items, from electronics and clothing to toys and jewelry, contributing to what may be a record $12 billion spending spree by U.S. consumers. This represents a 5.4% increase from last year. Retailers enticed shoppers with average price cuts of 30% on electronics and 19% on furniture, with discounts starting as early as Saturday. Amazon and Walmart joined in with aggressive price reductions, especially for mobile purchases. Last-minute shoppers were predicted to spend an additional $4 billion in the evening, anticipating discounts. Retailers have reduced inventory levels to bolster margins, but this strategy comes with the risk of products being sold out.

INTERNATIONAL NEWS

Euro zone government bond yields have  decreased as investors await for inflation data to be released later this week, which could impact expectations for interest rate cuts in 2024. Money markets are toning down their bets on policy rate reductions, and they expect ECB President Christine Lagarde to confirm the bank is in wait-and-see mode. Consequently, Germany’s 10-year government bond yield dropped to 2.60%, while money markets are projecting a reduction in the rate by December 2024.  Additionally, the budget crisis in Germany is being monitored, as it may affect the bloc’s fiscal policy discussions. If Germany eases its fiscal rules, this could influence an E.U. fiscal rulebook reform with a focus more on growth, and this easier fiscal stance could also lead to agreement aimed at promoting growth over stability.

KEY EVERTS HAPPENING THIS WEEK

Monday: New home sales report for October.

Tuesday: S&P Case-Shiller home price index (20 cities) report for September, Consumer confidence report for November, and speeches from Fed Gov. Christopher Waller, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman and Fed Governor Michael Barr.

Wednesday: GDP third quarter report, speech from Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, and Fed Beige Book.

Thursday: Initial jobless claims for week ending on November 25, Personal income (nominal), PCE index, and Pending home sales reports for October, and speech from New York Fed President John Williams.

Friday: ISM manufacturing and Auto sales reports for November, Construction spending report for October, and speeches fromChicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and Fed Chair Jerome Powell. .

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