RETAIL RESILIENCE
Based on the latest data, retail sales in the U.S. showed resilience in October, increasing by 0.4% from the previous month. This growth exceeded economists’ expectations and was reflected in the upward revision of September’s sales figures. The rise in October sales was mainly driven by a 1.6% increase in auto sales, while sales excluding auto and gas saw a more modest increase of 0.1%. This positive economic data has sparked discussions about potential adjustments in the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policies, with markets now anticipating a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming December meeting. Nonetheless, investors should also keep in mind that, as stated by Fed Chair Jerome Powell during his latest speech, the central bank is applying a cautious approach to rate adjustments, and due to the current strength of the economy, they believe there is no immediate need for rate reductions. Furthermore, despite the overall retail positive results, the control group, which influences the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), experienced a slight decline of 0.1% in October.
BULLISH ON NVIDIA
Select Wall Street analysts are currently forecasting a potential surge in Nvidia’s stock price, estimating gains of 10% to 28%. This projection is based on the upcoming third-quarter earnings report from Nvidia, which is scheduled for November 20. Nvidia is a prominent player in the artificial intelligence industry, often serving as a barometer for the sector’s health, and many expect that due to the upcoming launch of Nvidia’s Blackwell GPU, sales could have been boosted significantly, with projections reaching $10 billion for this year. As a result, analysts from firms like Morgan Stanley and UBS have already revised their price targets upward to $160 and $185, respectively. Nevertheless, despite this optimism, it is worth noting that there are still concerns about potential challenges in manufacturing and production that could affect the company’s growth in the short term.
FROM BOOST TO UNCERTAINTIES
As the frenzied interest in Bitcoin has started to ease off, the cryptocurrency’s value has fluctuated, dipping below $87,000 before recovering to $90,265 after comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, and as of 8:00 AM CST, its value has been trading just below the $90,000 mark. In addition, the premium for CME-listed Bitcoin futures over the spot market price has also decreased, signaling a reduction in risk. It is worth noting that following Donald Trump’s pro-crypto stance post-election, Bitcoin has surged by 30%, and investors have poured $4.3 billion into U.S. Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), anticipating further market developments. However, as uncertainties linger about the feasibility and timeline of Trump’s promises to create a crypto-friendly regulatory environment and position the U.S. as a global industry hub, Bitcoin has been very volatile. Furthermore, looking ahead market watchers are closely monitoring Bitcoin’s performance at the $90,000 resistance level and tracking bullish options bets at the $100,000 strike on Deribit.
SWINGING STOCK
Despite its recent upward trend following the election, Tesla’s stock has taken a dip as post-election gains faded and reports emerged of potential cuts to electric vehicle tax credits under the new Trump administration. Following a Reuters report outlining plans to eliminate the $7,500 tax credit for EV buyers, Tesla stock saw a 5.7% decline and continued its downward trajectory with a further decrease of over 1% in premarket trading. In addition, discussions within Trump’s team regarding the termination of this subsidy, supported by Tesla representatives, raised concerns among investors, and although the stock is still up by 15% since the election, news of the Cybertruck’s sixth recall due to a faulty part added to the negative sentiment. Nevertheless, despite this, it is worth noting that some investors remain hopeful about Tesla, as analysts like those from Wedbush have raised their price target for Tesla to $400, reflecting the potential $1 trillion opportunity in these fields.
INTERNATIONAL NEWS
China’s economy has shown signs of rebalancing, with a boost in retail sales and stable industrial production. This shift is crucial as the country braces for potential tariffs under President Trump’s administration. The strong growth in retail sales, outperforming expectations, is encouraging for an economy that had been heavily reliant on production. In addition, other economic indicators, such as stabilizing home prices and decreasing jobless rates, offer some hope for a more stable future. However, it is worth remarking that experts warn that further policy support may be necessary to sustain this momentum in the face of potential challenges, and they emphasize the importance of increasing domestic spending to ensure long-term economic growth and stability amid uncertainties in global trade relations.
