EARLY CLOSE
Today, the stock market will close at 12:00 PM CST.
BULL RUN OVER?
Bitcoin’s price has experienced a notable decline, dropping by 1.35% in the last 24 hours and standing 16% below its all-time high of $73,835, set on March 14. Over the past 30 days, the crypto’s value has fallen by 9.2%, sparking speculation among market analysts about whether Bitcoin has reached its “cycle top.” Experts from Capriole Investments have highlighted a range of on-chain metrics that suggest Bitcoin is struggling to reach new highs. For instance, the Bitcoin long-term holder (LTH) inflation rate, which measures the annual accumulation or distribution by Bitcoin holders, has been steadily increasing and now stands at 1.9, close to the critical 2.0 level that often signals a market peak. Moreover, the Bitcoin Dormancy Flow metric, which tracks the number of coins being spent relative to the overall trend, has also risen significantly over the past three months. In addition, it has been noted that peaks in the Dormancy Z-score generally precede cycle tops by about three months. Furthermore, a sudden increase in the Spent Volume of Bitcoin, especially in the 7-10 year range, indicates potential market weakness. Ultimately, these metrics combined with the impending repayment by the defunct Mt. Gox exchange, may be suggesting that Bitcoin may be near the end of its current cycle.
PREPARE TO REPORT
Starting in 2026, new rules from the U.S. Treasury and IRS will require digital asset brokers, like those that manage cryptocurrency, to report the prices at which assets were bought and sold. By 2027, this information will be used to help the government ensure people are paying the correct amount of taxes on their digital assets. This move aims to prevent tax evasion and make sure wealthy individuals who invest in cryptocurrencies are paying what they owe. In addition, this effort is expected to increase tax revenue significantly over the next decade. Therefore, crypto investors need to know exactly what they originally paid for their assets by the end of 2024 to avoid being taxed more than they should be. Moreover, it is worth noting that although these new rules will not impact tax filings next year, they will become very important starting from 2025.
JOB GROWTH SLOWED
According to a recent report from ADP, private payroll growth in the U.S. slowed in June, suggesting a potential deceleration in the labor market. Companies added 150,000 jobs for the month, which is lower than May’s revised figure of 157,000 and below the Dow Jones estimate of 160,000, marking the smallest monthly gain since January. The leisure and hospitality sector notably contributed 63,000 jobs, preventing an even greater decline. In addition, gains were also seen in construction with 27,000 jobs, professional and business services with 25,000, other services with 16,000, and trade, transportation, and utilities with 15,000. Conversely, declines were noted in natural resources and mining, which lost 8,000 jobs, manufacturing with a reduction of 5,000, and the information sector dropping by 3,000. Moreover, wage growth for employees who remained in their jobs slowed to 4.9% year-over-year, the smallest since August 2021, while those who switched jobs saw a 7.7% increase. Furthermore, companies with 50-499 employees added 88,000 jobs, whereas small businesses added just 5,000.
RISING JOBLESS CLAIMS
Unemployment claims in the U.S. rose by 4,000 to 238,000 last week, indicating a cooling labor market, the Labor Department said. This uptick pushes claims to the higher end of this year’s range (194,000-243,000), partially due to layoffs from higher interest rates and holiday season adjustments. Post-July 4th volatility is expected, especially since auto manufacturers may retool assembly plants. Currently, there are 1.22 job openings per unemployed person, nearing the 2019 average. Furthermore, around 1.858 million people received ongoing benefits, partly influenced by a policy change in Minnesota. Separately, June job cuts by U.S. employers fell by 23.6% from May but were 19.8% higher than last year.
