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$US10Y Reaches 16 Year High, Short-Term Forecast & Negative Impact on Equities Market

The $US10Y has been extremely bullish since May 2023, and has gained more strength after the Fed’s hawkish announcement that led to a “higher for longer” interest rate environment. The $US10Y has broke through numerous resistance levels to reach its 16-year high. From a technical analysis perspective, the $US10Y has a tendency to have strong bullish rallies with breaks above the Bollinger Band (marked by yellow lines). We are observing that scenario in the current bonds market. There is a likelihood that the rally continues for a few more weeks (approximately 1-4 weeks). However, I think the $US10Y and bonds market are due for a correction back down to the EMA ribbon. A strong bond market hurts equities because investors perceive $US10Y as a less riskier investment alternative. This is hurting $SPX in the short term, but a peaking $US10Y could also signal the bottom of the $SPX correction at current levels. For now investors are waiting for Friday’s jobs data after the Tuesday JOLTS job openings data came in worse than expected.

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