The yield curve has started to uninvert by rising back above 0. While the yield curve is signaling concerns for a recession, I still think it is early. Usually the recession occurs after the yield curve has increased for a bit longer. I think about 0.50 – 1 would be the key area for some concerns. There could be a spike up if we get a bad jobs report on Sept 6 so we’ll see how things are trending in early September.
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The odds of a 50 bps cut are now 50/50. The past few times there were 50 bps cuts the stock market experienced multiple years of downside. The Japanese yen also looks like it can have years of downside ahead. Not good folks, let’s see if we get 25 or 50 bps next week. Follow […]
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There are numerous indicators flashing warning signs for a recession or major economic downturn. Blood Indicator: A Recession Warning This chart features the blood indicator, which is the ratio of US 3-month Treasury Bills to High Yield Spread. Historically, the blood indicator crosses below the 100 week moving average before a major financial crisis and […]
Read MoreThe VIX is trending up today with 9%+ gains, but is still trading near a key $21.81 resistance line. I would monitor for a break or rejection at $21.81. I think the Presidential election brings a lot of uncertainty in the markets, which leads to volatility and a rise in the VIX. If the VIX […]
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The odds of a 50 bps cut are now 50/50. The past few times there were 50 bps cuts the stock market experienced multiple years of downside. The Japanese yen also looks like it can have years of downside ahead. Not good folks, let’s see if we get 25 or 50 bps next week. Follow […]
Read MoreThere are numerous indicators flashing warning signs for a recession or major economic downturn. Blood Indicator: A Recession Warning This chart features the blood indicator, which is the ratio of US 3-month Treasury Bills to High Yield Spread. Historically, the blood indicator crosses below the 100 week moving average before a major financial crisis and […]
Read MoreThe VIX is trending up today with 9%+ gains, but is still trading near a key $21.81 resistance line. I would monitor for a break or rejection at $21.81. I think the Presidential election brings a lot of uncertainty in the markets, which leads to volatility and a rise in the VIX. If the VIX […]
Read More