The odds of a Fed pivot in September have significantly dropped from 90%+ to around 12%. We’ll have to wait and see how the odds look closer to the Sept. 18 Fed pivot date. I don’t think we get a rate cut in the upcoming July meeting. November currently has the best odds, but I think the odds will keep changing over the next few months.
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I talked about the yield curve uninversion a few days ago, and now the yield curve is trending on Twitter. The yield curve rising above 0 should raise some concerns for a recession. However, the process still takes a few months for a recession to begin. For now this is yet another warning sign to […]
Read MoreI am bullish on US treasuries headed into 2025. Warren Buffett has also been loading up on US Treasuries, I think it is a safe investment right now with some great upside. The price action has been pretty neutral within this red resistance zone. I’m interested in buying TLT if the price drops lower near […]
Read MoreThe yield curve has started to uninvert by rising back above 0. While the yield curve is signaling concerns for a recession, I still think it is early. Usually the recession occurs after the yield curve has increased for a bit longer. I think about 0.50 – 1 would be the key area for some […]
Read More
I talked about the yield curve uninversion a few days ago, and now the yield curve is trending on Twitter. The yield curve rising above 0 should raise some concerns for a recession. However, the process still takes a few months for a recession to begin. For now this is yet another warning sign to […]
Read MoreI am bullish on US treasuries headed into 2025. Warren Buffett has also been loading up on US Treasuries, I think it is a safe investment right now with some great upside. The price action has been pretty neutral within this red resistance zone. I’m interested in buying TLT if the price drops lower near […]
Read MoreThe yield curve has started to uninvert by rising back above 0. While the yield curve is signaling concerns for a recession, I still think it is early. Usually the recession occurs after the yield curve has increased for a bit longer. I think about 0.50 – 1 would be the key area for some […]
Read More