The inverted yield curve has started to spike up over the past few days. The yield curve signals a recession after crossing above zero. I drew a blue circle for how high the yield curve could approximately climb before we have a recession. For now the yield curve has not crossed above zero yet. I am personally looking to short the market near the end of August or early September. I think we have been in a recession or quite some time now, but the US government wants to wait until after the elections to admit it. Now that Biden has dropped out of the elections we could see a recession before the November elections.
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