The inverted yield curve has been inverted since July 2022, which is one of the longest inversions in its history. The longer the inversion the steeper the markets could crash, so this inverted yield curve implies that we could still experience a significant market crash. Historical data reveals that the market crashes have occurred after the Fed pivot. We currently have a 90%+ probability of rate cuts in Sept. 18 so we could crash sometime in Q4 of this year. The yield curve is currently below 0, marked by the yellow line. If the inverted yield curve starts to rise above 0 I would be concerned for a market crash.

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