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April 2024 Core PCE Inflation

Core PCE inflation comes in very strong. This is the lowest we’ve seen since March 2021. The markets are bullish from this good news. Today’s monthly candle close will be important to monitor.

June 12 FOMC Meeting

As we enter into the month of June, there is an FOMC meeting on June 12. The Fed was initially anticipated to pivot in March, which was delayed to June. Now there has been yet another delay until either July or September. Currently there is a 99% probability of another pause in June. Core PCE inflation has reached 2.75%, which is satisfactory because it is under 3% and approaching the Fed’s 2% target. Yesterday one Fed speaker stated that inflation does not have to be at 2% for the Fed to start cutting rates. The Fed is making progress towards that long awaited Fed pivot. Historically, the Fed pivot leads to a short-term 20% correction before a longer term bullish rally.

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