ClearValue Team Insights
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April 2024 Core PCE Inflation
Core PCE inflation comes in very strong. This is the lowest we’ve seen since March 2021. The markets are bullish from this good news. Today’s monthly candle close will be important to monitor. June 12 FOMC Meeting As we enter into the month of June, there is an FOMC meeting on June 12. The Fed […]Read More
US Bonds Dropping as Yields Spike
TLT is trading near historical lows around $82.40. The current price is around $89 and TLT is in a downtrend. I would monitor the price action on the way down for a buy opportunity. I wouldn’t mind DCAing on dips in case if the price doesn’t reach $82.40. ChartChamp socials: https://linktr.ee/realchartchamp
Read MoreSpike in DXY, VIX, and 10 Year Bond Yields
The Fed’s recent comments are leading to a pessimistic outlook for a Fed pivot in July or September. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), VIX and 10 year bond yields all spiked today. These three charts have an inverse correlation with stocks, bonds, crypto, and commodities. So it will be important to monitor whether the spike […]Read More
Update on the U.S. Bonds Market After April’s Inflation Data
April’s inflation data was another nothingburger. PPI and CPI inflation data met expectations, and coffee was removed from the inflation metrics. The data is heavily manipulated, and investors will remain calm as long as the Fed continues to act like everything is fine. The 10 year bond yields have declined after today’s CPI inflation numbers. […]Read More
Possible Opportunities Through Local-Currency Debt
The foreign exchange market is a dynamic arena where traders seek to capitalize on fluctuations in currency values, and among the diverse array of forex trading opportunities, emerging-market local-currency debt seems to be standing out as an intriguing option. When we talk about emerging market local-currency debt we are referring to bonds denominated in the […]Read More
Inverted Yield Curve Suggests 50% Market Crash
As long as there is an inverted yield curve there should be concerns for a market crash. The yield curve has been inverted for a very long time, approximately 500 days. This is the lengthiest inverted yield curve since 1929. There is a correlation between the length of the inverted yield curve and the size […]Read More
U.S. Labor Market: A Shift Toward Skilled Labor as White-Collar Hiring Slows
Recent data indicates a significant shift in the U.S. labor market with a growing divide between the demand for skilled labor in sectors like manufacturing and a slowdown in hiring for traditional white-collar roles. This evolving landscape suggests a dual-track job market where skilled labor is in high demand while professional and business services experience […]Read More
May FOMC Recap: Powell’s Strategy Amid Inflation Challenges
In the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the Federal Reserve’s stance surprisingly leaned dovish. The Fed omitted any discussion of raising interest rates, which is a decision that positively impacted stock markets and reduced bond yields. Fed Policy Adjustments In an adjustment to its monetary policy, the Federal Reserve announced a reduction in […]Read More
FOMC’s May Interest Rate Meeting
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is set to commence its two-day meeting this Tuesday, with a pivotal decision on interest rates expected on Wednesday. Notably, this meeting will not feature an update to the Summary of Economic Projections, commonly known as the “dot plot.” Market participants largely anticipate that the outcome of this meeting […]Read More
Inverted Yield Curve Sending a Recession Warning
We’ve talked about the inverted yield curve for over a year now. The yield curve has been inverted for 700+ days, and is signaling a 50% crash ahead. The media is painting the narrative that we are trending for a soft landing, but I call BS on that and I’m shorting the stock market. As […]Read More
Post-FOMC Market Update:
The markets believe that we are trending towards a soft landing, which is causing defensive positions to get punished and risk-on positions (like stocks and crypto to get rewarded). I personally don’t believe we are trending for a soft landing and I think there is a lot of market risk buying at these price levels. […]Read More
How the S&P 500 Reacts to 0.25% vs. 0.50% Fed Rate Cuts
This chart compares S&P 500 performance 6 months before and 12 months after the first Fed rate cut for several years: 1995, 1998, 2001, 2007, and 2019. The chart distinguishes between rate cuts of 0.25% (red lines) and 0.50% (blue lines), providing insight into how the stock market reacted under different conditions. Here are the key observations and analysis: Key […]Read More