ClearValue Team Insights
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Inverted Yield Curve Sending a Recession Warning
We’ve talked about the inverted yield curve for over a year now. The yield curve has been inverted for 700+ days, and is signaling a 50% crash ahead. The media is painting the narrative that we are trending for a soft landing, but I call BS on that and I’m shorting the stock market. As […]Read More
Post-FOMC Market Update:
The markets believe that we are trending towards a soft landing, which is causing defensive positions to get punished and risk-on positions (like stocks and crypto to get rewarded). I personally don’t believe we are trending for a soft landing and I think there is a lot of market risk buying at these price levels. […]Read More
How the S&P 500 Reacts to 0.25% vs. 0.50% Fed Rate Cuts
This chart compares S&P 500 performance 6 months before and 12 months after the first Fed rate cut for several years: 1995, 1998, 2001, 2007, and 2019. The chart distinguishes between rate cuts of 0.25% (red lines) and 0.50% (blue lines), providing insight into how the stock market reacted under different conditions. Here are the key observations and analysis: Key […]Read More
USD/JPY Trading Near Support Headed Into Sept. 20 BOJ Decision
Today the U.S. Federal Reserve will receive a lot of attention for their role in the global financial markets. There will be a ton of important information released today, but we also have another extremely important announcement from the Bank of Japan on Sept. 20. The Japanese yen is the only asset that is appreciating […]Read More
The Fed’s September 2024 Rate Cut: Key Takeaways
On September 18, 2024, the Federal Reserve made its first 50 basis point (bps) rate cut since 2020, signaling a shift in monetary policy. While the economy is described as “strong overall,” the Fed has justified the cut as a proactive measure to sustain growth and control inflation. Key Points from the Fed’s Decision Powell’s Statement on the […]Read More
Analyzing 50 Basis Point Rate Cuts in 2001 and 2008
1. Federal Reserve – 2001: 50BP Cut (Jan 3) → Recession (Mar–Nov 2001) Background: The Event: Consequences: 2. Federal Reserve – 2007: 50BP Cut (Sep 18) → Recession (Dec 2007–Jun 2009) Background: The Event: Consequences: The Fed’s Continued Actions: Long-term impacts: Broader Reflection on U.S. Monetary Policy: Follow me on social media: https://linktr.ee/realchartchamp
Read MoreInverted Yield Curve at Risk of Rising
The inverted yield curve has been slowly rising, and is at risk of spiking up over the next few weeks. The steep corrections and crashes usually occur after the Fed pivot, so it is important to be cautious after tomorrow’s FOMC announcement. Realistically a steep correction can occur soon after the pivot or it could […]Read More
Tech Industry Job Cuts Surge in August: A 193% Increase from July
The number of job cuts in the U.S. surged dramatically in August 2024, highlighting a notable shift in the employment landscape, particularly in the tech sector. According to recent data, August witnessed the highest single-month level of layoffs since March, marking a 193% jump from those announced in July. August Marks Highest Layoff Levels Since […]Read More
50/50 Odds of 50 bps Rate Cuts
The odds of a 50 bps cut are now 50/50. The past few times there were 50 bps cuts the stock market experienced multiple years of downside. The Japanese yen also looks like it can have years of downside ahead. Not good folks, let’s see if we get 25 or 50 bps next week. Follow […]Read More
DXY Trading in a Resistance Zone
The U.S. dollar index has experienced a lot of upside since Sept. 30. In my last update I discussed the $104 resistance zone as a key price level for DXY to start trending back down. So far DXY continues to show bullish momentum into resistance. I would like to see DXY experience a pullback in […]Read More
DXY Approaching $104 Resistance
DXY has experienced a lot of upside since Sept. 30. A strong DXY is bearish for the financial markets, but interestingly DXY, stocks, and crypto have managed to rally together. I think DXY is approaching resistance here around $104. I would monitor for a rejection between $103.925 and $104.272. A pullback for DXY could help […]Read More
TLT Approaching $92 Support
US bonds have experienced a correction, and TLT is approaching a light blue support level around $92. I would monitor for a bullish rebound, and TLT needs to find support above $96.02 to trend up higher. I think there could be a nice swing trade opportunity to buy at $92. 10 year bond yields have […]Read More