The yield curve has started to uninvert by rising back above 0. While the yield curve is signaling concerns for a recession, I still think it is early. Usually the recession occurs after the yield curve has increased for a bit longer. I think about 0.50 – 1 would be the key area for some concerns. There could be a spike up if we get a bad jobs report on Sept 6 so we’ll see how things are trending in early September.
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The inverted yield curve has been slowly rising, and is at risk of spiking up over the next few weeks. The steep corrections and crashes usually occur after the Fed pivot, so it is important to be cautious after tomorrow’s FOMC announcement. Realistically a steep correction can occur soon after the pivot or it could […]
Read MoreThe number of job cuts in the U.S. surged dramatically in August 2024, highlighting a notable shift in the employment landscape, particularly in the tech sector. According to recent data, August witnessed the highest single-month level of layoffs since March, marking a 193% jump from those announced in July. August Marks Highest Layoff Levels Since […]
Read MoreThe odds of a 50 bps cut are now 50/50. The past few times there were 50 bps cuts the stock market experienced multiple years of downside. The Japanese yen also looks like it can have years of downside ahead. Not good folks, let’s see if we get 25 or 50 bps next week. Follow […]
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The inverted yield curve has been slowly rising, and is at risk of spiking up over the next few weeks. The steep corrections and crashes usually occur after the Fed pivot, so it is important to be cautious after tomorrow’s FOMC announcement. Realistically a steep correction can occur soon after the pivot or it could […]
Read MoreThe number of job cuts in the U.S. surged dramatically in August 2024, highlighting a notable shift in the employment landscape, particularly in the tech sector. According to recent data, August witnessed the highest single-month level of layoffs since March, marking a 193% jump from those announced in July. August Marks Highest Layoff Levels Since […]
Read MoreThe odds of a 50 bps cut are now 50/50. The past few times there were 50 bps cuts the stock market experienced multiple years of downside. The Japanese yen also looks like it can have years of downside ahead. Not good folks, let’s see if we get 25 or 50 bps next week. Follow […]
Read More