Wall Street has always been a dynamic arena where the biggest players constantly jostle for the top spots. 

History has shown that the composition of the largest companies by market capitalization changes over time, reflecting shifts in technology, consumer behavior, and economic conditions. For instance, in 2000, companies like Nokia, Intel, and General Electric were among the top 10 companies by market cap, however, as of today, only one company from that elite group remains among the largest: Microsoft. 

Looking ahead to 2035, while technological innovations, mergers, acquisitions, and economic events can be challenging to predict, we expect to see some new leaders emerge, and some of these companies are:

Amazon (AMZN): By 2035, AMZN is expected to comfortably hold the title of the largest publicly traded company in the U.S., and the key driver behind this projection is Amazon Web Services (AWS), its highly profitable cloud infrastructure service platform.

As of the end of 2023, AWS boasts $100 billion in annual run-rate sales and holds a 31% share of the global cloud infrastructure service market, and as enterprise cloud spending is still in its early stages, it is believed that AWS’s growth potential is immense. The profitability of cloud services far exceeds that of online retail, meaning AWS can significantly boost Amazon’s overall operating cash flow.

Additionally, Amazon’s subscription services, notably Amazon Prime, and its advertising services are expected to contribute substantially to its growth. With over 200 million Prime subscribers, exclusive content, and an extensive content library, Amazon’s pricing power will likely continue to strengthen.

Furthermore, Amazon’s advertising segment benefits from the vast number of visitors to its site – around 2.5 billion people each month, and this traffic translates into strong ad-pricing power.

Ultimately, considering these factors, Amazon’s cash flow is poised to drive its valuation north of $5 trillion by 2035.

Microsoft (MSFT):

The lone survivor from the top 10 companies of 2000, MSFT is expected to retain its place among the largest companies over the next decade as its strategy of blending legacy products with new growth areas has proven highly effective.

It is worth noting that Windows and Office continue to generate substantial revenue, however, Microsoft has gone beyond them, by has reinvested these earnings into higher-growth areas such as cloud computing.

Moreover, Microsoft’s robust financial health allows it to take strategic risks and invest in transformative technologies. As of March 2024, Microsoft had $80 billion in cash and short-term investments and generated $110 billion in operating cash flow over the trailing 12 months, and this financial strength can definitely provide a wide room for acquisitions and innovations that can boost Microsoft’s growth further.

Alphabet (GOOGL):

The parent company of Google, YouTube, and Google Cloud, is projected to be another trillion-dollar behemoth by 2035, and this is because Google’s dominance in internet search is unparalleled, with a market share exceeding 90% for the past nine years. Thus, this dominance ensures that Alphabet’s ad-driven revenue streams benefit from extended periods of economic expansion.

In addition Alphabet has the third-largest cloud infrastructure service platform, Google Cloud, which finished its first profitable year in 2023, and as businesses continue to increase their cloud-based IT spending, Google Cloud’s sales, profits, and margins are expected to scale significantly.

Furthermore, Alphabet’s financial health further supports its growth prospects, as with nearly $108 billion in cash and marketable securities as of March 31, Alphabet has the resources to make strategic acquisitions and invest in game-changing projects without compromising its core operations. Therefore, due to this financial stability, Alphabet will be able to capitalize on any emerging technologies and market opportunities.

Meta Platforms (META):

The parent company of Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, Facebook Messenger, and Threads, is also expected to be among the largest companies by 2035, and this is because Meta’s vast social media ecosystem, attracting over 3.24 billion daily active users as of the March-ended quarter, offers unparalleled reach for advertisers. With 98% of its revenue coming from advertising, Meta stands to benefit significantly from periods of economic growth.

Additionally, beyond advertising, Meta is investing heavily in long-term growth opportunities such as virtual and augmented reality, the metaverse, and artificial intelligence. While the Reality Labs segment is currently a financial drain, CEO Mark Zuckerberg’s strategy of building up platforms before monetizing them has proven effective in the past.

Furthermore, Meta’s strong balance sheet, with $58 billion in cash and marketable securities and an annual run rate of $77 billion in net cash generated from operations, allows it to fund these ambitious projects. Thus, Meta’s financial flexibility ensures that it continues to innovate and expand its business into new lucrative areas.

Visa (V):

The global digital payment technology company is projected to become one of the largest publicly traded companies by 2035, driven by its dominance in the payment processing industry.

As the leading payment processor, Visa benefits from increased consumer and enterprise spending during economic expansions. Historically, economic growth periods have often lasted multiple years, providing a conducive environment for Visa’s business.

Visa’s significant growth potential lies in its untapped international markets, and in addition to its leading market share in the U.S., Visa has a long runway for growth in emerging markets where many consumers and businesses are still underbanked. Regions such as Africa, the Middle East, and Southeastern Asia present substantial opportunities for Visa to expand its footprint.

Moreover, one of Visa’s strategic advantages is its decision to avoid becoming a lender. By focusing solely on payment facilitation, Visa sidesteps the risks associated with credit delinquencies and loan losses that can impact lending institutions during economic downturns. This focus has allowed Visa to maintain a strong financial position and continue growing even during challenging economic periods.

Now, many might wondering why despite being prominent market players, Nvidia and Apple are excluded from this future projection?

Well, although Nvidia’s leadership in AI is undisputed, there are still some concerns about a potential AI bubble that can risk Nvidia’s long-term stability.

When we talk about a bubble we refer to a situation in which the price of a financial asset, in this case Nvidia’s stock, significantly exceeds its intrinsic value, driven by excessive excitement. Essentially, during this time, the perceived potential and value are much higher than what is currently achievable, and this can lead to inflated company valuations, an influx of investment, and widespread hype.

If the AI bubble bursts, it can lead to sudden sharp declines in the valuations of all AI companies, particularly on Nvidia, which is currently considered the leader in this sector generating substantial revenues. And as a result of this, AI stocks may become less appealing as investors might become wary of putting money into this sector.

Moreover, Apple is undoubtedly a significant player in the tech industry due to its dominant force for many years, however, its recent growth trajectory has been slowing down, raising questions about its ability to maintain its position among the top companies by market cap.

Additionally, Apple faces increasing competition in key markets like smartphones and tablets. The smartphone market, in particular, has become highly saturated, making it challenging for Apple to continue its rapid growth in this segment. And since Apple’s revenue realies heavily on iPhone sales, the company might be at risk of experiencing a devaluation, especially as consumer preferences evolve and new competitors emerge.

Thus, although Nvidia and Apple remain as two formidable companis with strong brand recognition, their growth prospects may not be as robust as the companies mentioned above.

To conclude, while nobody can predict the future with absolute certainty, analyzing current trends and data can offer valuable insights into the potential trajectories of these market giants. We should always keep in mind that in the fast-paced world of finance, knowing what is going on and making informed choices can lead to success in the long run. And by focusing on companies with solid, varied revenue streams, substantial market presence, and sound financial stability – like those highlighted in this article – we increase our chances of success as if predictions come true, investing in them could lead to big gains.

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