Rivian no longer expects to build as many vehicles this year as it did in 2023. After third-quarter deliveries fell, Rivian lowered its EV production plans for 2024. Rivian now expects to build fewer vehicles in 2024 than last year. Rivian delivered 10,018 vehicles in the third quarter, down 27% from the 13,790 reported in Q2 and 26% from the first three months of 2024 (13,588). After a supply shortage began in Q3, Rivian cut production plans for the year. It now expects to build between 47,000 and 49,000 vehicles this year, down from its previous 57,000 target.

RIVN has dropped 7% from the news, and I think we will likely see more downside over the next few months. RIVN is currently trading near a $10 support level and there is likely to be a short-term rebound here. I think in the big picture RIVN has been forming lower highs and lower lows. There are a lot of bearish signs, I think there will be an opportunity to buy below $8.24 in a few months. We had a very nice swing trade with RIVN, but near the end of July I posted my thoughts on exiting the trade as the bullish seasonality trend finishes. I have been bearish since the end of July, I think the seasonality trend looks bearish for the next few month, and I would be interested in buying a dip at new all time lows. For those who like RIVN as a long term investment, it’s not a bad idea to DCA down from $10 on dips. However, the news is pretty awful and there’s likely to be more downside.

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