Yesterday NVAX received bad news that is hurting the stock price. The news is that NVAX has entered into a termination and settlement agreement with the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) related to its COVID-19 vaccine supply agreement. Novavax has agreed to refund $123.8 million to the UK Health Agency in equal quarterly installments of $10.3 million over a three-year period, ending on June 30, 2027.

This is a large refund that will definitely hurt, especially since NVAX has a market cap around $1.4 billion. The only positive is that this refund is being spread out over time, which I think will lessen the blow. However, this will also hurt NVAX’s quarterly earnings announcements due to $10.3 million in refunds each quarter.

In terms of the price action, NVAX is trading near a $8.88 support level and is at risk of losing support with this bad news. If NVAX fails to rise back above $8.88 there could be a continued selloff. Price is currently below support so NVAX would need to reclaim support within the next few hours or sometime this week.

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