This table compares the S&P 500 (SPX), Gold, and Bitcoin (BTC) returns during major geopolitical events over two timeframes: 10-day returns and 60-day returns.
Key Takeaways:
- U.S.-Iran Escalation (Jan. 3, 2020):
- 10D Return: SPX (+2%), Gold (0%), BTC (+12%)
- 60D Return: SPX (-7%), Gold (+6%), BTC (+20%)
- Bitcoin performed strongly over both time periods, while Gold remained stable in the short term but gained in the long term. SPX dropped significantly over 60 days.
- COVID Outbreak (Mar. 11, 2020):
- 10D Return: SPX (-20%), Gold (-9%), BTC (-25%)
- 60D Return: SPX (+2%), Gold (+3%), BTC (+21%)
- All three assets fell sharply in the short term, with Bitcoin suffering the most. Over 60 days, all assets recovered, particularly Bitcoin.
- 2020 U.S. Election Challenges (Nov. 3, 2020):
- 10D Return: SPX (+7%), Gold (-1%), BTC (+19%)
- 60D Return: SPX (+12%), Gold (-1%), BTC (+131%)
- Bitcoin saw an extraordinary surge over both timeframes. SPX had moderate gains, while Gold had slight negative returns.
- Russia Invasion of Ukraine (Feb. 24, 2022):
- 10D Return: SPX (-2%), Gold (+2%), BTC (-6%)
- 60D Return: SPX (+3%), Gold (+9%), BTC (+15%)
- Gold acted as a safe haven asset with consistent gains, while Bitcoin initially fell but recovered in the long term. SPX also improved over 60 days.
- U.S. Regional Banking Crisis (Mar. 9, 2023):
- 10D Return: SPX (-2%), Gold (+10%), BTC (+25%)
- 60D Return: SPX (+4%), Gold (+11%), BTC (+32%)
- Bitcoin and Gold both performed exceptionally well during the crisis, with Bitcoin having the highest returns. SPX lagged but still ended with moderate gains.
- Yen Carry Trade Unwinding (Aug. 5, 2024):
- Data for this event is incomplete, indicating it’s possibly a very recent or ongoing event.
General Insights:
- Bitcoin tends to perform strongly in times of crisis, especially over longer periods (60 days), showing its appeal as a speculative or high-risk investment.
- Gold often acts as a safe haven during geopolitical or economic uncertainty, providing stable or positive returns, particularly in the long term.
- S&P 500 (SPX) tends to suffer short-term volatility during crises but often recovers over 60 days, though the extent varies depending on the event.
Overall, Bitcoin appears to be the most volatile but with the highest long-term potential returns during major geopolitical events, whereas Gold offers more stable, safe-haven performance. SPX shows resilience but can be negatively affected depending on the severity of the event.
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