The seasonality index for presidential election years suggests that July, August, November, and December are seasonally bullish months. The two seasonally bearish months are September and October.

The key catalyst for a market correction is the Fed pivot. On average the fed pivot leads to a 20% decline. We still have a lengthy inverted yield curve that could turn this market correction into a 50% crash.

My trade strategy is to remain bullish until the Fed pivot, and then I plan to exit the markets and start shorting again.

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