There are two key trends to monitor for the remainder of this year. The first is the inflation data, which has been gradually cooling down. The Fed keeps pausing and pushing back their target Fed pivot date. The media narrative is that this is bearish, but in actuality the delays are bullish for the markets. September is looking like the target for the first rate cut, but things can change over the next few months.
The second important factor is a world war, which I believe is already quietly taking place.
The definition of a world war is multiple countries at war with one another. We have Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Israel, Palestine, Lebanon, Iran as countries involved in a major conflict. There are also conflicts in Myanmar and Africa that are receiving less media coverage.
This week tensions are escalating between Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah, as well as between Russia and the United States. Russia has officially classified the United States as an enemy after Biden approved the supply of US weapons to Ukraine. Russia has sent warships and nuclear weapons to Cuba, which is a strong Russian ally located near the Florida coast.
The world war is an alternative to a global recession, and the world war could trigger a black swan. I have been giving warnings about a black swan in 2024. With tensions escalating again this week, the threat of a black swan has reemerged and it is important to monitor what happens next. Usually black swans are unexpected events, but there are warning signs before it takes place. We have seen lots of warning signs already so I would stay on high alert and take measures to protect against market risk such as setting a stop loss.
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