Bitcoin’s seasonality has NOT been following the previous Presidential election cycles, which also align with the year of the Bitcoin halving. Q1 was supposed to be a bearish trend for Bitcoin, but we had a strong rally due to the spot BTC ETF approvals.

Historically there are 4 bearish months during the year of the Bitcoin halving. So far we have only seen 1 bearish month in April. I think we still see 3 bearish months for the remainder of the year. The Presidential election seasonality trend suggests that August and September are two worst performing months for Bitcoin during Presidential election years.

I still remain bullish on June and July, I think July is one of the strongest performing months for the markets. My current outlook is that Bitcoin breaks through the $73k resistance zone and has an early rally to $100k. I think we are likely to peak around July-August before having a significant correction. My price target is the top of the logarithmic curve, which will vary in price depending on when we reach it. Currently the target is around $100k – $126k if we get a summer rally with a peak around July-August.