In the two previous halving cycles, 2016 and 2020, there is a notable pattern with 4 red BTC monthly candles during the year of the Bitcoin halving.

• In 2016 these four red months occurred during January, March, July, and August.
• In 2020 the four bearish months occurred during February, March, June, and September.

There is a pattern where the bearish monthly candles occur around the same time period: two bearish months in Q1 and two bearish months in late Q2, early Q3.

So far in 2024 we’ve observed just over 4 months of price action. BTC has only closed red in April, and May is trending to be a bullish month with plenty of price action left. There should be caution over the next 7 months for 3 more red candles. BTC’s historical performance suggests that during the year of the Bitcoin halving there have been a total of 4 bearish months. Since we’ve only observed 1 bearish month so far, there should be concern for 3 more red monthly candles ahead.

So far Bitcoin’s performance has differed from the two previous cycles because there are usually two bearish months in Q1. In 2016, those two bearish months occurred in Jan. and Mar. In 2020 those two bearish months occurred in Feb. and Mar. In 2024, BTC was green for all 3 months of Q1, and only the month of April has been bearish to date.

Bitcoin’s recent monthly performance suggests that there are six key months that are most likely to be bearish: May, June, August, September, November, and December. I believe 3 of out of these 6 months will be red.

This suggests that there are three potential scenarios to consider:
(1) Choppy price action for a few months over the summer
(2) A Bitcoin rally throughout the summer before a multi-month correction headed into the fall.
(3) A bearish summer followed by a post-summer rally.

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