Next week there is an important FOMC meeting on Sept. 18 where the Fed is expected to announce a 25 bps cut. Bitcoin has formed a peak near the two previous FOMC meetings in June and July (marked by light blue circles). I think the there is a good chance that Bitcoin is also forming a peak here around $58.5k. There have been numerous rejections at $58.5k over the past few days, and I would monitor for a break or rejection over the next few hours and days. If BTC gets rejected here I think there could be another drop down to around $50k. As a reminder, my preferred scenario is a red September that could lead to green in Oct, Nov, and Dec. The only key factor is how Bitcoin will react to the Fed pivot. The safest approach is to take measures to protect yourself from the risk of downside (i.e. put a stop loss to avoid major drawdowns).

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