ClearValue Team Insights
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Lengthy Yield Curve Remains Inverted Despite Sahm’s Rule
Two weeks ago we received a lot of panic selling in the financial markets that was caused by the Sahm’s rule recession indicator flashing a signal for a recession. The Sahm’s rule recession indicator suggests that we are already in a recession. The inverted yield curve is another important indicator to monitor, and so far […]Read More
10 Year Bond Yields Likely to Drop to 3.60%
10 year bond yields have dropped below a key support level at the yellow trendline. Bond yields have been neutral and trading sideways, but I think there could be a drop down to 3.60%. The bearish sentiment in bond yields is bullish for financial markets. Bond prices and stocks are likely to see some upside […]Read More
Yield Curve Uninverts & Triggers Recession Concerns
The yield curve has officially uninverted by crossing above 0%. This uninversion usually occurs right before a recession, and we also see other recession signals such as the Sahm’s rule that was activated a few weeks ago. Right now the market is not showing any signs of a recession, but if the Sept. 6 jobs […]Read More
Yield Curve Continues to Uninvert
The yield curve has started to uninvert by rising back above 0. While the yield curve is signaling concerns for a recession, I still think it is early. Usually the recession occurs after the yield curve has increased for a bit longer. I think about 0.50 – 1 would be the key area for some […]Read More
TLT Continues to Face Resistance in the Red Zone
I am bullish on US treasuries headed into 2025. Warren Buffett has also been loading up on US Treasuries, I think it is a safe investment right now with some great upside. The price action has been pretty neutral within this red resistance zone. I’m interested in buying TLT if the price drops lower near […]Read More
Yield Curve Flips Positive
I talked about the yield curve uninversion a few days ago, and now the yield curve is trending on Twitter. The yield curve rising above 0 should raise some concerns for a recession. However, the process still takes a few months for a recession to begin. For now this is yet another warning sign to […]Read More
TMF Showing Bullish Momentum Ahead of Rate Cuts
TMF has experienced a nice rally as we approach the Sept. 18 Fed pivot date. I have $70.53 as a key resistance level to monitor for a break or rejection on the way up. I would buy TMF on any dips because bond prices are likely to rise after the Fed pivot. Follow me on […]Read More
50/50 Odds of 50 bps Rate Cuts
The odds of a 50 bps cut are now 50/50. The past few times there were 50 bps cuts the stock market experienced multiple years of downside. The Japanese yen also looks like it can have years of downside ahead. Not good folks, let’s see if we get 25 or 50 bps next week. Follow […]Read More
Tech Industry Job Cuts Surge in August: A 193% Increase from July
The number of job cuts in the U.S. surged dramatically in August 2024, highlighting a notable shift in the employment landscape, particularly in the tech sector. According to recent data, August witnessed the highest single-month level of layoffs since March, marking a 193% jump from those announced in July. August Marks Highest Layoff Levels Since […]Read More
Altcoin Market Starting to Trend Down
As Bitcoin and Ethereum start to flip bearish, the Altcoin market is also starting to trend back down. I have the lower end of the channel around $466.5 billion as a key level of interest. If the crypto market drops in Sept and early October it will be important to see if Bitcoin, Ethereum, and […]Read More
Ethereum Losing Value Relative to Bitcoin
Over the weekend ETH/BTC was trading at the lowest level in four years, which implies that Ethereum continues to show weakness and lose value relative to Bitcoin. ETH is trading near support at $2,307.58, but is showing some concerning bearish price action here. There is strong sell pressure into support, and ETH will have to […]Read More
Bitcoin Trading Near $58,455 Support
Bitcoin has rallied last week, but started to show weakness over the weekend. So far BTC continues to face resistance within the white zone, and BTC is trying to stay above $58,455 support here. I think BTC trends lower in September and early October, but for now I would monitor the $58,455 support level to […]Read More