ClearValue Team Insights
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Warning Signs of a Financial Crisis Ahead
There are numerous indicators flashing warning signs for a recession or major economic downturn. Blood Indicator: A Recession Warning This chart features the blood indicator, which is the ratio of US 3-month Treasury Bills to High Yield Spread. Historically, the blood indicator crosses below the 100 week moving average before a major financial crisis and […]Read More
VIX Trading Near Resistance
The VIX is trending up today with 9%+ gains, but is still trading near a key $21.81 resistance line. I would monitor for a break or rejection at $21.81. I think the Presidential election brings a lot of uncertainty in the markets, which leads to volatility and a rise in the VIX. If the VIX […]Read More
TMF Showing Bullish Momentum Ahead of Rate Cuts
TMF has experienced a nice rally as we approach the Sept. 18 Fed pivot date. I have $70.53 as a key resistance level to monitor for a break or rejection on the way up. I would buy TMF on any dips because bond prices are likely to rise after the Fed pivot. Follow me on […]Read More
Yield Curve Flips Positive
I talked about the yield curve uninversion a few days ago, and now the yield curve is trending on Twitter. The yield curve rising above 0 should raise some concerns for a recession. However, the process still takes a few months for a recession to begin. For now this is yet another warning sign to […]Read More
TLT Continues to Face Resistance in the Red Zone
I am bullish on US treasuries headed into 2025. Warren Buffett has also been loading up on US Treasuries, I think it is a safe investment right now with some great upside. The price action has been pretty neutral within this red resistance zone. I’m interested in buying TLT if the price drops lower near […]Read More
Yield Curve Continues to Uninvert
The yield curve has started to uninvert by rising back above 0. While the yield curve is signaling concerns for a recession, I still think it is early. Usually the recession occurs after the yield curve has increased for a bit longer. I think about 0.50 – 1 would be the key area for some […]Read More
Yield Curve Uninverts & Triggers Recession Concerns
The yield curve has officially uninverted by crossing above 0%. This uninversion usually occurs right before a recession, and we also see other recession signals such as the Sahm’s rule that was activated a few weeks ago. Right now the market is not showing any signs of a recession, but if the Sept. 6 jobs […]Read More
10 Year Bond Yields Likely to Drop to 3.60%
10 year bond yields have dropped below a key support level at the yellow trendline. Bond yields have been neutral and trading sideways, but I think there could be a drop down to 3.60%. The bearish sentiment in bond yields is bullish for financial markets. Bond prices and stocks are likely to see some upside […]Read More
Lengthy Yield Curve Remains Inverted Despite Sahm’s Rule
Two weeks ago we received a lot of panic selling in the financial markets that was caused by the Sahm’s rule recession indicator flashing a signal for a recession. The Sahm’s rule recession indicator suggests that we are already in a recession. The inverted yield curve is another important indicator to monitor, and so far […]Read More
DXY Continues to Show Strength
DXY continues to show strength. Usually a strong DXY is bearish for stocks and crypto. But everything is rising together, which doesn’t add up. Follow me on social media: https://linktr.ee/realchartchamp
Read MoreDXY Has Rallied Since Sept 30
The U.S. Dollar Index has experienced a strong rally since bottoming out around $100. A strong DXY is usually bearish for financial markets so the stock market should not be showing so much strength while the DXY is rallying. DXY’s rally could also be one of the factors for crypto’s selloff. I think DXY is […]Read More
TMF At Risk of Further Decline
TMF has held strong throughout August and September, but is starting to show some weakness in October. I have $54.72 and $47.50 as two key support levels to monitor. TMF is also trading near local support around $56, I would monitor to see if the $56 and $54.72 support levels hold for now. Follow me […]Read More