🧠 SPX 4H Chart Breakdown – April 13, 2025
The bulls are staging a fierce comeback — but the battlefield is far from cleared.
📈 Structure & Trendlines
$SPX has bounced cleanly off the April low near 4,900 (blue demand zone), forming a sharp ascending channel. Price action is now challenging a key confluence of resistance levels around the 5,360–5,400 zone.
Two intersecting white trendlines highlight the macro downtrend from the March highs. SPX is now wedged between the rising support of this recovery channel and the overhead resistance of the broader bearish structure — essentially a bearish retest zone.
📍 Key Levels
Immediate Resistance: 5,400–5,507 (intersects with 4H R level and trendline resistance)
Major Pivot Zone: 5,659–5,747 (W(R) and cluster of moving averages)
Support: 5,300 and 5,180 (bottom of recent consolidation)
Demand Floor: 4,860–4,900 (4H/D(S) zone that sparked the bounce)
🧭 Indicators & Moving Averages
Price is nearing the 200 EMA (orange line), which has acted as dynamic resistance during the downtrend.
The cluster of moving averages (brown, blue, and purple) above 5,500 suggests thick air — a lot of overhead resistance to chew through.
Momentum remains bullish in the short term, but a bearish divergence is starting to shape if price continues higher without a matching RSI breakout.
💣 Scenarios to Watch:
🔵 Bullish Case:
Break and close above 5,507 clears the path to 5,659 and potentially 5,747.
Confirmation comes on a backtest of 5,400 holding as support.
🔴 Bearish Case:
Failure to break the 5,400–5,507 resistance and a breakdown from the ascending channel signals a bull trap.
Watch for a move back to 5,200, then retest of 4,900 demand zone if macro headwinds return.
🧠 Trader’s Take:
This is a textbook inflection zone — the squeeze is on. Bulls have momentum, but they’re charging straight into a layered minefield of resistance. A clean breakout above 5,507 will force late shorts to cover. Until then, caution is warranted. Fade into strength, but don’t fight a squeeze if it breaks through.
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